First, I'm proud of you for disagreeing and you bet, you can beat his odds. No question there!
Hmmm..... I'd still be obese/overweight, if his theory held true. Somehow, his news never got to me. I guess I messed up. I lost all my extra weight. I should have paid better attention. LOL!
Seriously, my surgeon never gave me a goal weight, but instead encouraged me to lose as much as possible and get as healthy as possible and gave me the tools with which to do it. He didn't want me hung up by a number. He said the number would come later, and it did. I picked it and it was the RIGHT number and weight for me.
I think crappy food plans and a lack of understanding on how a bariatric patients needs to eat are the main reasons that most WLS patients don't get to goal. I read of people eating some pretty outlandish things early out and those foods are actually one their food plans, so it's not as if they are eating off plan. I think it's sad that there are plans out there that actually set it up so that patients only lose 50-60% of their extra weight.
Having been at goal for almost a year now, I have some thoughts on this set point thing. I don't really buy it anymore, but what I do buy is that it takes far fewer calories to maintain a lower weight than it did my obese weight - even with all the exercise I do. I think that is what many, many people just don't really grasp once they hit maintenance. I know I did not at first. It took me some time to really get that fact to sink in. Those for whom this never sinks in, I think, are bound to gain some weight or maybe not even ever get to goal. Thus, they start gaining weight and go back to that imagined "set point". I think it's because those people are eating too much all over again and their caloric intake is just too damn high to maintain their current body weight.
For me, this is very true. If I begin to eat off plan and allow treats and carbs back in I am suddenly a few pounds higher by the end of the week and then I have to detox, decarb, and lose the weight all over again. I decided I just didn't like this ritual and that it wasn't worth it to me, so I've made some changes in my eating and lo and behold my weight is stable.
Go figure. Eat like we're supposed to, get regular exercise and the weight stays stable within a two or three pound range. That I can live with!