3500 calorie deficit = 1 lb loss?????

The bottom line is exercise is a great thing, but in truth, it has very little to do with our weight loss.  The main thing that helps us lose weight is the diet and I know you are following that religiously.  You are right, there is not a whole lot more you can do but just keep at it. 

"It's never right for a week, I think because fluid fluctuation is too great."

Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner! 

And this is ESPECIALLY true for women who have a strong monthly cycle. (Men have monthly cycles too but not like this.) You can't look to the scale to give you an accurate picture of what is going on in the short term. That's one reason why we're only supposed to weigh once a week during the losing phase.

But even once a week can be misleading. I think you have to look it on a monthly basis. That way you've accounted for all the water retention of that TOM and anything that might happen during ovulation. 

And, yes, all these numbers are just estimates. Remember that the labels on the food we eat are estimates. The calculations of any devises we use are estimates. Definitely all the numbers from databases and online programs are estimates. 

I have found them to be pretty accurate though. Not 100%. But pretty close. I like my BodyMedia FIT in particular because I don't have to guess at my BMR or RMR which does change every day. It is calculating that. So if one day you don't fidget as much or you spend longer at your desk, it accounts for that. Plus there is none of this false distinction between "exercise" and 'real life". So, if you run around all day doing errands and you burn an extra 200 calories, you get credit for it even though you didn't technically "workout".

But you do need to set them up correctly and once in a while you get a unit that does way over-estimate calories or at least I've seen that. I've seen it way more with the FitBit which is why I got the BodyMedia FIT! But it happens. If you think yours is really overestimating -- if it tells you numbers that don't make sense, you might want to go to the FB page for BodyMedia and talk to them to see if you have a defective unit or if there is a setting somewhere you can tweak.

OH, I forgot something....

According to what I've read, 500 calorie a day deficit will lead to an approximate weight loss of 1 pound a week on average. But a 1000 calorie a day deficit doesn't necessarily lead to a 2 pound a week deficit. Because our bodies try to protect our weight, as you increase your deficit, your brain sends your body messages to get it slow down.

I read an article somewhere that estimated that a 1000 calorie a day deficit leads to a 1.5 pound a week weight loss and a 1500 calorie a day deficit leads to a 1.75 pound a week weight loss. I have NO IDEA if this is true or not. But I do know that a 1500 calorie a day deficit does not lead to a 3 pound a week weight loss for most people at least not after a while.

This is one reason why I didn't sweat the numbers too much when I was losing. I ate as little as possible while still getting in my recommended protein and having enough energy to do my training and I worked out as much as possible and I lost what I lost. If I didn't lose as much as Dr. C wanted me to, I upped my exercise. If my weight loss slowed down, I looked at my logs to see if anything changed and adjusted from there.

Elina says the weight loss comes from the diet, not the exercise. I disagree with that. I say that at some point you can't eat any less. You have to eat enough to keep from fainting. So if you want to lose faster, the only tool left is exercise. Now, MOST of the deficit most people create is from the diet. Elina is right about that. But, exercise is an extra lever you can pull. If you eat 800 calories and you don't exercise, you aren't going to lose as much as if you eat 800 calories and do exercise.