Where Are They Now?

I've been thinking a lot about the people who had their surgeries around the same time I did, which is about 18 months ago. There were about 20 people that I cheered on and learned from - their success was my success, if that makes sense. 

Most are gone from the boards now. I went back and briefly glanced through some of their old threads and blog posts and the results struck me like a ton of bricks. I wish I could say that they've moved on because they're happily living their lives at goal and enjoying early maintenance, but that's simply not true. In reality, most of them never reached their desired goal weight - be that normal BMI, something higher or lower, or a particular clothing size. 

So looking back, here's a summary of their progress, as best as I can tell. I'm still in touch with many of them, but not all.  

About four or five of my friends leveled out at 60-70% EWL, two or three friends reached their specified goal weight, and the rest landed somewhere in between. A couple people changed their goal to a higher weight and are within striking distance. 

On first glance that's not so bad, right?  I'm not so sure. The reason I say that is because virtually everyone who did not get to their desired size has already experienced some regain. Most say they are still fighting it, but with limited success.

One of the people in the small group *****ached their desired weight has experienced some regain too, but the fluctuations have been less and she has been more successful in dealing with it. In summary, virtually everyone improved their lives after surgery - and that's a critical outcome - but most did not achieve everything they hoped for.

If my little peer group is in any way similar to the collective, it's relatively straightforward to lose 75% or so of your excess weight, no matter what method you use. This does not mean you will get it all off or that you will maintain your loss for any period of time before you regain some.  If that doesn't matter to you, no worries, but if it does, please spend some time reflecting on this.  Oh and virtually everyone thought they would reach their goal weight. 

So when I see posts from pre-ops asking about whether the surgery is worth it, I can absolutely say yes. But can I comfortably say they will reach their goal?  The odds do not seem to be in their favor.  

Sorry, but I think this needs to be said. We all do well at first, but most of us will not get to goal.

I think you are over optimistic, 75% loss is higher than the national norms.  You are also right about regain over time and the fact that most people have some regain, those that do not reach goal often have more regain for the same reasons that they never reached goal in the first place (the last part is my own commentary and I do not have a journal article to back this up).  I often post about this very issue because I think most people go into this with seriously flawed expectations of what this surgery brings to the table.  Having said this, I still think that WLS is the only thing with even close to acceptable stats for dealing with obesity.  It is not the cure or the magic potion or anything else except a tool used differently by different individuals.  We all have to find peace with what we are willing/able to get from it when balanced by what we are willing to put into it on a daily basis for the rest of our lives.  I also think that the early weight loss period 'tricks' us into thinking the weight will just fall off all the way to goal and that we will be able to effortlessly maintain the weight loss later on.  In general, the last 20 pounds are hard to lose, and most people do not lose them.  Maintenance gets harder over time and many regain some portion of their weight through the years.  Nothing but staying on top of it and being a little OCD has worked for me.  People often tell me that I can be a bit obsessive about maintenance, well they are right.  I need it or else I regain.  That is my simple truth, others need to find their simple truth and live/accept it.  

I see that 75% figure is being about what most people lost before immediately starting to regain.  Unfortunately, it's likely the percentage will worsen for my little group over time. With surgery, some of the weight 'falls off - but certainly not all of it and most likely not forever.

Sometimes I get on the board, well, just in the hopes I'll see some of the few I followed as mentors during my journey--( those maybe 3-6 months ahead of me) thrilled when I do- but, you know, it does not often happen--yah, what has happened?  Is that going to happen to me?  Success, and then the inevitable?  I'll drop off because the slippery slope has me in its' evil grip.  I made it to goal- beyond, a bit, even.  Is that any gaurentee?      What I know is that I miss those just before me who don't post, as well as con- temporaries AND even some who were a month o so behind me--- It's like I feel their sucess is tied to my ability to be successful.  OH, MY......Courage, folks--when the push comes to the shove, do you want to be average, or do you you want to be the exception;  For one time in your life - THE WINNER-THE EXCEPTION?  I'm an old fart, but, by, gosh, I want to go out a winner.

One of the points that Elina makes above is that because you've successfully completed all the hard work to take you to goal, your chances are likely better than for someone who didn't. I agree with that. You have the practices in hand to be successful. 

You ARE a winner.  Seriously, I would bet on your success.

What a happy post.  Not.

Definitely not a happy post, but no less true because of that!

Any individual has the opportunity to make it to goal and keep regain at bay.  Period.  That is what new folks need to focus on and work towards.  You are not doomed to fail. You will have to do your part.  Surround yourself with support.  Go to your support groups, visit your Nut, complete your follow-up appointments, exercise, track your food, measure, hit your nutrition targets.  It is doable. 

Yes, everyone has the chance to make it with the tools you mention. That's the good news. We have to come to terms with the reality that it's 'extraordinary' to incorporate and keep using all the tools available. But it's a choice for each and every one of us.