Almond prices falling...

Former almond grower here...I still have 3 trees, 2 at the farm and one at home.  So crazy things are happening to the almond market...and it will be good for WLS/diet people.  Battles are raging around the world...From China to the Middle East.  Almond handlers have sent shipments around the world with agreed upon prices....Giving growers over $5.00 a pound last year (premium almonds).  So China and other countries have said..."The price is too high.  Reduce it in half".  The handlers say "NO...We agreed on this price".  So the almonds sit at the ports waiting for someone to give in. 

So the prices have been in free fall for the last few weeks (see story below).  Where some growers are getting about $2.00 for the same product that they were getting $5.00 last year.  I don't know how long before this translates to across the US and Canada in prices...But it will be a win for consumers as the handlers have to dump their product, to get ready for August/October harvest.  Brian

 

A larger than expected almond crop and soft global demand have sent the California nut industry into a tailspin, with prices falling by more than half and unsold nuts mounting in processors' warehouses.

But industry experts said this week that prices have leveled off and the relative bargains are drawing buyers back.

California, which produces about 80 percent of the world's almond supply, was expected to harvest about 1.8 billion pounds of the crunchy nuts last fall. But the latest estimates put the 2015 crop closer to 1.9 billion pounds.

In addition, soft demand and buyers pulling back from the market as prices plummeted left about 810 million pounds of almonds unsold at the end of February, about 25 percent, or 165 million pounds, more that at the end of February 2015, according to the Almond Board of California.

The industry was surprised by the size of the crop, said Brad Klump, almond broker and owner of BKI Exports in Escalon.

"We ended up carrying 100 million pounds more than we thought we would," he said.

And when almond prices rose in anticipation of a light crop, buyers balked, said Bill Morecraft, senior vice president of Blue Diamond, the almond growers' cooperative.

"Global demand softened in the fourth quarter of 2015 in response to higher pricing from California over the summer," he said.

That triggered a sharp decline.

Krump said he saw spot market prices for nonpareil, the state's premier almond variety, fall most recently to $2.15 to $2.20 a pound from $4.50 to $4.60 per pound last fall, while less desirable "pollinator" varieties now go for around $1.80 a pound from $4 a pound.

"That's a big difference," he said.

It also triggered turmoil in some major export markets, Morecraft reported.

"The rapid drop in prices generated contract defaults in Dubai and in India when the price of replacement goods fell below older contracts," he said in a statement.

Those issues are being worked out and there is a turnaround in the making, Morecraft predicted.

"Prevailing prices are more than sufficient to spur demand that had been slowed by the peak prices in the second and third quarters of 2015," he said.

The price drop had almond buyers sitting on the sidelines, said David Phippen, principal of Travaille & Phippen, an almond grower, processor and handler in the Manteca/Ripon area.

"The buyer has to perceive he's finally reached the bottom of the market," he said. "I'm hopeful as a grower and seller that we certainly have hit the bottom and sales will start taking off now."

There are signs it's beginning to happen.

The latest Almond Board report shows February shipments totaled 155 million pounds, compared to nearly 140 million pounds shipped in February 2015. That's a gain of nearly 11 percent, although February was one day longer this year.

"It looks like if you lower the price, people buy more of it," Phippen said.

Krump said spot prices "have been stable now for three or four weeks," his feeling is that demand and supply are more balanced.

Morecraft said he expects to see a significant lift in market activity in the next few months and beyond.

"With the most attractive early season prices in recent years, we should see a return to the pattern of strong fall shipments to satisfy holiday demand for (the Hindu festival) Diwali, Christmas and Chinese New Year in markets around the world," he said.

Almonds are a lovely snack, but we shouldn't rely on them too much. 1oz is only 6g protein for 163 calories, and the majority of our food should be at least 10g protein per 100 calories.

I don't eat nuts on a regular basis as I find that the calories don't fit into my plan.  I do, however, use almond milk nearly every day with my protein shake.  If that translates into lower cost for my almond milk, then Yay me!

They get stuck in my teeth. I don't like them. 

You guys are NUTS -- (pun intended) -- I love almonds and I use them quite frequently.  I do realize that they are calorie dense, so I am careful to weigh out portions carefully -- and I make my own almond milk because I am quite capable of watering down a minuscule amount of almonds without adding that nasty carrageenan to it.  I also portion off servings of almonds for my husband and son -- a far better snack than Cheetos or Dorritos.  I have convinced my son that almonds are decadent snack... HAHAHA.  Sometimes I toss them in powdered cocoa, cinnamon and cayenne -- I call them Mexican Chocolate almonds.  My husband thinks I am a genius.  He is right!

I for one am THRILLED if prices go down.  I currently buy 38 oz of almonds for around $18.00 bucks every month.